Polling Problems – The New York Times

first_imgFool us once …The polls were wrong again, and much of America wants to know why.- Advertisement – 4. Most of the easy solutions are probably not real solutions. Since Election Day, some campaign operatives have claimed their private polls were more accurate than the public polls. That seems more false than true. Biden, Trump and both parties campaigned as if their own polls matched the public polls, focusing on some states that were not really competitive and abandoning others that were close.- Advertisement – 5. Polls have still been more accurate over the last four years than they were for most of the 20th century. As pollsters get more information about this year’s election and what went wrong, they will try to fix the problems, much as they did in the past. A new challenge: In the smartphone age, poll response rates are far lower than they used to be.6. We journalists can do a better job of conveying the uncertainty in polls. Polls will never be perfect. Capturing the opinions of a large, diverse country is too difficult. And in today’s closely divided U.S., small polling errors can make underdogs look like favorites and vice versa. All of us — journalists, campaign strategists and the many Americans who have become obsessed with politics — shouldn’t forget this. We just got another reminder. Dozens of pre-election polls suggested that Joe Biden would beat President Trump by a wide margin, but the race instead came down to one or two percentage points in a handful of states. Polls also indicated that Democrats would do much better than they did in congressional races.So what happened? Here are six key points:1. In the last few years, Republican voters seem to have become less willing to respond to polls. Maybe that shouldn’t be surprising, given Trump’s attacks on the media, science and other institutions.- Advertisement – And my colleague Nate Cohn, who knows more about this subject than almost anybody, points out that a significant chunk of the error involved Hispanic voters. Nate has also discussed polling on episodes of “The Daily” and “The Argument” podcasts.Elsewhere: Sarah Isgur of The Dispatch says the problem isn’t about Trump voters who lie about their preference. Charles Franklin of Marquette University suggests the pandemic may have affected turnout in surprising ways. Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster, notes that polls in many states will still be “incredibly close” to the final result.THE LATEST NEWSThe ElectionThe Virus Broadway is closed. It’s also everywhere.These are difficult times for live theater. The pandemic has shut down Broadway and many local theaters since March, leaving actors, stagehands and others out of work and fans missing the shows. But there is one way that theater is managing to thrive right now: Broadway has become a bigger source of televised entertainment.An incomplete list of recent and upcoming releases includes “The Prom,” “The Boys in the Band,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” “West Side Story” and “Wicked.” The film version of “Hamilton” was so popular that it contributed to a bump in sign-ups for Disney Plus, The Verge reports. And in a Broadway first, a musical focused on the life of Diana, Princess of Wales is set to debut on Netflix before the stage production opens.Why is this happening now? One reason is streaming services’ “insatiable desire for content, even niche content,” Alexis Soloski writes in The Times. There’s also more mingling across theater, film and television than in the past. The playwright Jeremy O. Harris, who wrote “Slave Play,” signed a deal with HBO this year; Phoebe Waller-Bridge, who originally wrote and performed “Fleabag” as a one-woman play, signed one with Amazon.Some critics worry that film versions will cannibalize live ticket sales. But no film can entirely reproduce the experience of a live show. Just look at social media’s horrified reaction to last year’s movie version of “Cats.”The Times recommends: “What the Constitution Means to Me,” Heidi Schreck’s affecting play about the document’s impact on our daily lives.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to Cookcenter_img Morning ReadsModern Love: A man finds himself caught up in a global romance scam.The planet’s future: Climate change will be central to Biden’s presidency. Here’s what he plans to do about it.Lives Lived: Lucille Bridges braved abuse from white protesters as she and her 6-year-old daughter, Ruby, walked to an all-white school in New Orleans in 1960, crossing one of the segregated South’s most rigidly defended color lines. Bridges died at 86.Subscribers make our reporting possible, so we can help you make sense of the moment. If you’re not a subscriber, please consider becoming one today. Want to get The Morning by email? Here’s the sign-up.Good morning. It’s another record day for virus cases. Obama’s memoir gets a glowing review. And we look at why the polls were wrong. 2. This phenomenon isn’t simply about working-class whites. Pollsters were careful to include more of these voters in their samples than four years ago, when the polls also missed, but it didn’t solve the problem. One likely reason: Even within demographic groups — say, independent, older, middle-income white women — people who responded to polls this year leaned more Democratic than people who did not.3. It’s also not just about Trump. Polls missed in several Senate races even more than in the presidential race, which means they did an especially poor job of finding people who voted for Biden at the top and a Republican lower down the ballot. – Advertisement –last_img read more


AFCON 2019: Ghana vs Tunisia Tactical preview

first_imgKwasi Appiah hopes to guide the Black Stars to the coveted fifth Africa Cup of Nations title in Egypt. Ghana managed to top Group F ahead of Cameroon, Guinea-Bissau and Benin. Two draws and a win at the group stages were enough to seal top spot in Egypt.Kwasi Appiah opts for his favoured 4-2-3-1 formation; a double-pivot in midfield, two wingers and an attack-minded midfielder in the hole behind the striker. His lineups from the group stage give us an indication of how he will set up against Tunisia. The Black Stars learnt a lot in the group stages; the best centre-back pairing, how good the wide players in the team are and what our midfield is good at.Black Stars Strengths’ ●          Wing playGhana is one of the best teams in the AFCON when it comes to attacking from the flanks; with 54% of our attacks coming from the left and right flanks. This has been down to how Kwasi Appiah has instructed the team to play, the wingers and full-backs operate very high up the pitch. Baba Rahman’s introduction into the XI has been crucial, and the effect can be seen, with Ghana predominantly attacking from the left side of the field. Look at how high Yiadom and Baba are in the attackTunisia loves to play and attack quite narrow, so using our width to its maximum capacity would help us a lot in Ismailia ●          Getting in behind defencesGhana’s build-up play leaves a lot to be desired at times but most often when it does work, we create a lot of chances from it. Our attackers; especially Jordan, thrive at receiving the ball in behind defences rather than in front of them. Look closely at Ghana’s goals scored in this AFCON, majority of them have come from getting the ball in behind the opponent. The forwards may not have pace to burn, but their intelligent runs have allowed them to gain a few yards ahead of the opponent’s defenders. Jordan’s effort vs Guinea-BissauGhana’s equalizer vs BeninJordan Ayew goal vs BeninAll three situations above have involved two things; a good passer and a willing runner(s). If Ghana are able to use this weapon effectively in Ismaila, they would have an upper hand throughout the game. TunisiaAlain Giresse sets up Tunisia very similar to how Ghana setup, but with a few variations.Tunisia plays more of a 4-2-3-1 system, which is built on maximizing the attacking ability of their three (3) star players: Wahbi Khazri, Youssef Msakni and Naim Sliti. This trio has caused havoc in the final third in this AFCON, but their failure to convert when necessary has been their stumbling block. The variation of the 4-2-3-1 Tunisia employ involves their wingers drifting centrally to form an attacking trident in the middle of the pitch. They often rotate as they move across the pitch, confusing defenders as to who to track at which time. Typical Tunisia attacking structureHow does Ghana beat them?Beating Tunisia will not be easy but we need to do two things:●          Provide width and stretch play as wide as possible ●          Get in behind the defence often If there is joy to be found in this Tunisia lineup, it’s in their fullback areas. Tunisia’s fullbacks operate high and wide to accommodate for the lack of width when Sliti-Msakni-Khazri come into the middle. Mauritania and Mali were able to exploit this countless times during the group stage.Mauritania able to find their striker in behind with easeThis is how both teams would lineup with respect to the tactics and movements of the players in the formation.Tunisia’s fullbacks pushing up wide during the game would give a perfect advantage to the Black Stars; Samuel Owusu and Dede Ayew would need to stay high and wide in order to take advantage of any spaces in behind. If Alain Giresse decides to put a leash on both fullbacks, then Kwasi Appiah would need to let Yiadom and Baba attack and create 2v1 situations out wide. The runs of Partey, Dede and Jordan in behind the Tunisian defence would need to be perfectly choreographed if the Black Stars are to stand a chance in Ismailia.last_img read more