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Polling Problems – The New York Times

first_imgFool us once …The polls were wrong again, and much of America wants to know why.- Advertisement – 4. Most of the easy solutions are probably not real solutions. Since Election Day, some campaign operatives have claimed their private polls were more accurate than the public polls. That seems more false than true. Biden, Trump and both parties campaigned as if their own polls matched the public polls, focusing on some states that were not really competitive and abandoning others that were close.- Advertisement – 5. Polls have still been more accurate over the last four years than they were for most of the 20th century. As pollsters get more information about this year’s election and what went wrong, they will try to fix the problems, much as they did in the past. A new challenge: In the smartphone age, poll response rates are far lower than they used to be.6. We journalists can do a better job of conveying the uncertainty in polls. Polls will never be perfect. Capturing the opinions of a large, diverse country is too difficult. And in today’s closely divided U.S., small polling errors can make underdogs look like favorites and vice versa. All of us — journalists, campaign strategists and the many Americans who have become obsessed with politics — shouldn’t forget this. We just got another reminder. Dozens of pre-election polls suggested that Joe Biden would beat President Trump by a wide margin, but the race instead came down to one or two percentage points in a handful of states. Polls also indicated that Democrats would do much better than they did in congressional races.So what happened? Here are six key points:1. In the last few years, Republican voters seem to have become less willing to respond to polls. Maybe that shouldn’t be surprising, given Trump’s attacks on the media, science and other institutions.- Advertisement – And my colleague Nate Cohn, who knows more about this subject than almost anybody, points out that a significant chunk of the error involved Hispanic voters. Nate has also discussed polling on episodes of “The Daily” and “The Argument” podcasts.Elsewhere: Sarah Isgur of The Dispatch says the problem isn’t about Trump voters who lie about their preference. Charles Franklin of Marquette University suggests the pandemic may have affected turnout in surprising ways. Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster, notes that polls in many states will still be “incredibly close” to the final result.THE LATEST NEWSThe ElectionThe Virus Broadway is closed. It’s also everywhere.These are difficult times for live theater. The pandemic has shut down Broadway and many local theaters since March, leaving actors, stagehands and others out of work and fans missing the shows. But there is one way that theater is managing to thrive right now: Broadway has become a bigger source of televised entertainment.An incomplete list of recent and upcoming releases includes “The Prom,” “The Boys in the Band,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” “West Side Story” and “Wicked.” The film version of “Hamilton” was so popular that it contributed to a bump in sign-ups for Disney Plus, The Verge reports. And in a Broadway first, a musical focused on the life of Diana, Princess of Wales is set to debut on Netflix before the stage production opens.Why is this happening now? One reason is streaming services’ “insatiable desire for content, even niche content,” Alexis Soloski writes in The Times. There’s also more mingling across theater, film and television than in the past. The playwright Jeremy O. Harris, who wrote “Slave Play,” signed a deal with HBO this year; Phoebe Waller-Bridge, who originally wrote and performed “Fleabag” as a one-woman play, signed one with Amazon.Some critics worry that film versions will cannibalize live ticket sales. But no film can entirely reproduce the experience of a live show. Just look at social media’s horrified reaction to last year’s movie version of “Cats.”The Times recommends: “What the Constitution Means to Me,” Heidi Schreck’s affecting play about the document’s impact on our daily lives.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to Cookcenter_img Morning ReadsModern Love: A man finds himself caught up in a global romance scam.The planet’s future: Climate change will be central to Biden’s presidency. Here’s what he plans to do about it.Lives Lived: Lucille Bridges braved abuse from white protesters as she and her 6-year-old daughter, Ruby, walked to an all-white school in New Orleans in 1960, crossing one of the segregated South’s most rigidly defended color lines. Bridges died at 86.Subscribers make our reporting possible, so we can help you make sense of the moment. If you’re not a subscriber, please consider becoming one today. Want to get The Morning by email? Here’s the sign-up.Good morning. It’s another record day for virus cases. Obama’s memoir gets a glowing review. And we look at why the polls were wrong. 2. This phenomenon isn’t simply about working-class whites. Pollsters were careful to include more of these voters in their samples than four years ago, when the polls also missed, but it didn’t solve the problem. One likely reason: Even within demographic groups — say, independent, older, middle-income white women — people who responded to polls this year leaned more Democratic than people who did not.3. It’s also not just about Trump. Polls missed in several Senate races even more than in the presidential race, which means they did an especially poor job of finding people who voted for Biden at the top and a Republican lower down the ballot. – Advertisement –last_img read more

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Florida teen arrested after attempting to hire someone to kill her parents

first_imgOfficials in Lake County, Florida have arrested a teen who reportedly tried to hire someone to kill her parents.The teen was arrested Monday after a student from another school informed a school resource officer that one of their friends was paid “a lot of money” to go through with a murder-for-hire plot.  The school resource officer then contacted the Lake County Sheriffs Office.Investigators say the 17-year-old suspect, used a credit card that she stole from her parents to make two transactions totaling $1,300 in an effort to pay for the murders.The teen first paid a female friend $400 to kill her parents, however, that friend took the money and backed out of the murder plot. The teen suspect then paid a male friend $900 to complete the plot.  She then texted the first friend to tell her that she found someone else to go through with the plan and that it was supposed to occur Monday night.During a police interview with the suspect, the teen admitted that she wanted her parents dead and that she gave two different people money to kill her them.She additionally admitted that she purchased $100 worth of cocaine with her parent’s credit card.The teen has since been arrested on two counts of criminal solicitation for murder. It is unclear why she wanted to kill her parents.last_img read more

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Racing at Gowran Park and Dundalk

first_imgThe other entry from the Premier County is Moyne’s Tim Doyle- who saddles up Stop Road Lad in the Book Thyestes Packages Today Novice Handicap Hurdle, which goes to post at 5:15.There are no fewer than 16 Tipperary trained entries on this evening’s 8 race card at Dundalk.Aidan O’ Brien is the most heavily-represented- the Ballydoyle trainer has two runners in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden at 6:40, in the shape of Facade and Sea of Blue.They’ll be competing with two horse trained by David Wachman- Athassel Abbey and Laffina, plus David Marnane’s Octavia.O’ Brien then sends Masai alongside Marnane’s Harry Trotter in the following race at 7:10, with his trio of Afonso de Sousa, Indian Maharaja and Michaelmas going in the Group 3 Diamond Stakes at 7:40.And O’ Brien’s final runner of the evening is in the final race at 9;10, with Duarte Fernandes taking on David Peter Nagle’s Ballad Dancer.Elsewhere; Nagle also sends Lions Charge alongside the Eamon O’ Connell-trained Noverre Princess in the 8:40, with the opening Irish Stallion Farms EBF Auction Maiden featuring both David Marnane’s Pullman Brown and Moving On Up, trained by Charlie Swan”. The first of two domestic race meets today takes place at Gowran Park.There are just two Tipperary-trained entries across today’s 7 race card at the County Kilkenny track.Grandma Dotty- trained by Charlie swan- will run in the Gowran Park Santa Trained Maiden Hurdle, which goes to post at 3 o’ clock.last_img read more