Polling Problems – The New York Times

first_imgFool us once …The polls were wrong again, and much of America wants to know why.- Advertisement – 4. Most of the easy solutions are probably not real solutions. Since Election Day, some campaign operatives have claimed their private polls were more accurate than the public polls. That seems more false than true. Biden, Trump and both parties campaigned as if their own polls matched the public polls, focusing on some states that were not really competitive and abandoning others that were close.- Advertisement – 5. Polls have still been more accurate over the last four years than they were for most of the 20th century. As pollsters get more information about this year’s election and what went wrong, they will try to fix the problems, much as they did in the past. A new challenge: In the smartphone age, poll response rates are far lower than they used to be.6. We journalists can do a better job of conveying the uncertainty in polls. Polls will never be perfect. Capturing the opinions of a large, diverse country is too difficult. And in today’s closely divided U.S., small polling errors can make underdogs look like favorites and vice versa. All of us — journalists, campaign strategists and the many Americans who have become obsessed with politics — shouldn’t forget this. We just got another reminder. Dozens of pre-election polls suggested that Joe Biden would beat President Trump by a wide margin, but the race instead came down to one or two percentage points in a handful of states. Polls also indicated that Democrats would do much better than they did in congressional races.So what happened? Here are six key points:1. In the last few years, Republican voters seem to have become less willing to respond to polls. Maybe that shouldn’t be surprising, given Trump’s attacks on the media, science and other institutions.- Advertisement – And my colleague Nate Cohn, who knows more about this subject than almost anybody, points out that a significant chunk of the error involved Hispanic voters. Nate has also discussed polling on episodes of “The Daily” and “The Argument” podcasts.Elsewhere: Sarah Isgur of The Dispatch says the problem isn’t about Trump voters who lie about their preference. Charles Franklin of Marquette University suggests the pandemic may have affected turnout in surprising ways. Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster, notes that polls in many states will still be “incredibly close” to the final result.THE LATEST NEWSThe ElectionThe Virus Broadway is closed. It’s also everywhere.These are difficult times for live theater. The pandemic has shut down Broadway and many local theaters since March, leaving actors, stagehands and others out of work and fans missing the shows. But there is one way that theater is managing to thrive right now: Broadway has become a bigger source of televised entertainment.An incomplete list of recent and upcoming releases includes “The Prom,” “The Boys in the Band,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” “West Side Story” and “Wicked.” The film version of “Hamilton” was so popular that it contributed to a bump in sign-ups for Disney Plus, The Verge reports. And in a Broadway first, a musical focused on the life of Diana, Princess of Wales is set to debut on Netflix before the stage production opens.Why is this happening now? One reason is streaming services’ “insatiable desire for content, even niche content,” Alexis Soloski writes in The Times. There’s also more mingling across theater, film and television than in the past. The playwright Jeremy O. Harris, who wrote “Slave Play,” signed a deal with HBO this year; Phoebe Waller-Bridge, who originally wrote and performed “Fleabag” as a one-woman play, signed one with Amazon.Some critics worry that film versions will cannibalize live ticket sales. But no film can entirely reproduce the experience of a live show. Just look at social media’s horrified reaction to last year’s movie version of “Cats.”The Times recommends: “What the Constitution Means to Me,” Heidi Schreck’s affecting play about the document’s impact on our daily lives.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to Cookcenter_img Morning ReadsModern Love: A man finds himself caught up in a global romance scam.The planet’s future: Climate change will be central to Biden’s presidency. Here’s what he plans to do about it.Lives Lived: Lucille Bridges braved abuse from white protesters as she and her 6-year-old daughter, Ruby, walked to an all-white school in New Orleans in 1960, crossing one of the segregated South’s most rigidly defended color lines. Bridges died at 86.Subscribers make our reporting possible, so we can help you make sense of the moment. If you’re not a subscriber, please consider becoming one today. Want to get The Morning by email? Here’s the sign-up.Good morning. It’s another record day for virus cases. Obama’s memoir gets a glowing review. And we look at why the polls were wrong. 2. This phenomenon isn’t simply about working-class whites. Pollsters were careful to include more of these voters in their samples than four years ago, when the polls also missed, but it didn’t solve the problem. One likely reason: Even within demographic groups — say, independent, older, middle-income white women — people who responded to polls this year leaned more Democratic than people who did not.3. It’s also not just about Trump. Polls missed in several Senate races even more than in the presidential race, which means they did an especially poor job of finding people who voted for Biden at the top and a Republican lower down the ballot. – Advertisement –last_img read more


Ascot and Chester due to host races from The Silk Series

first_img ARC continues financial support for greyhound trainers during COVID-19 shutdown April 15, 2020 ITV secures three-year British racing broadcast deal August 5, 2020 Ascot and Chester racecourses have agreed to host races from the third series of The Silk Series in 2019, with the first race taking place at Ascot Racecourse this Saturday.The £150,000 series of races for female jockeys aims to promote the achievements of both amateur and professional female jockeys across Britain. Jockeys take part in a series of fifteen races across summer to compete for points. The races will take place at nine ARC racecourses, including Goodwood, Hamilton Park, Musselburgh and York Racecourses alongside Chester and Ascot.ARC’s Group Director of Partnerships, David Leyden Dunbar said, “It was fantastic to collaborate with our partner racecourses outside of our group in 2018 and this year’s further expansion of The Silk Series represents a real opportunity for the racing community to work in partnership to celebrate the achievements of female jockeys”.The races are set to be supported by official betting partner, bet365, with Sky Sports Racing presenter Hayley Moore set to offer race insights and tips ahead of each stage of the competition. Moore will also be offered a £100 charity bet for each race from bet365, with all of the proceeds to be donated to Cancer Research UK.The Silk Series will be continuing its support of Cancer Research UK in the third edition of the competition, having previously raised in excess of £52,000 last year. The Final will take place at Doncaster Racecourse on Thursday 12 September where the overall Champion will receive the Tufnell Trophy.  The trophy is named in honour of Meriel Tufnell, the first woman to ride a winner under rules in Britain when winning the Goya Stakes at Kempton Park in 1972. Submit Related Articles Share StumbleUpon Share Sportech highlights new client wins under lockdown June 26, 2020last_img read more


Women’s World Cup 2019: Megan Rapinoe embracing her veteran status

first_imgJump ahead 13 years. She’ll be 34 in July and one of the oldest on the USWNT roster for the World Cup. Over the course of more than a decade, Rapinoe has seen her role transition into one that includes leadership.  She has competed in the Olympics twice, she has two World Cup experiences behind her and she was named one of three captains for the national team in 2018.”My role has gone through a lot of different stages at this point. Youngest to oldest. From one of the ones being mentored to being a mentor. I just try to take it all in stride,” Rapinoe told Omnisport. Related News Megan Rapinoe was once the youngest on the U.S. women’s national team when she joined in 2006 at 21 years old.She knows what it’s like to be new to the international stage and she understands how hard it is to transition from playing for a club team to representing the United States overseas.  Equal Play. Equal Pay. RESPECT.— Megan Rapinoe (@mPinoe) March 31, 2016Rapinoe has used her leadership role and her platform of being on the USWNT to help improve women’s soccer. She has become outspoken on major issues involving the sport, including gender equality between the women’s and the men’s game. Rapinoe said one of her main goals is to be a part of the generation that creates more opportunity for the younger players coming up.“I hope the league is in a better place, more robust,” Rapinoe said when asked where she believes the national team will be in 20 years. “This team hopefully continues to grow, continues to be successful. “Off the field, I hope we continue to break down stereotypes and push through what it means to be an athlete as a female. Not necessarily a female athlete, but to be a woman and be an athlete at the same time. Hopefully we can continue to evolve what that means and what that looks like.”What’s on Megan Rapinoe’s resume?44 international goals in 153 international appearances57 international assists, which is the fifth-most in USWNT historyFIFA Women’s World Cup Champion (2015), runner-up (2011)Olympic gold medalist (2012)CONCACAF Women’s Championship title (2014, 2018) Women’s World Cup 2019: Complete schedule for group stage It’s a role she’s embracing. And it’s one she does leading by example.“I’m not the type of person who’s going to sit the younger players down and give them a presentation or anything, but I think first and foremost the way that I conduct myself — I try and be professional and prepare myself well and be really focused on training,” she said. “I try to understand what they’re going through and help them through it.”This energy right here 🤤@mPinoe x #AllEyesOnUS— U.S. Soccer WNT (@USWNT) April 19, 2019U.S. coach Jill Ellis acknowledged that the national team roster has a handful of veterans, including Rapinoe, who have taken the Americans’ leadership to another level.Ellis explained that when a new player comes to the team and struggles with one aspect of the game, she directs them to the veterans to gain perspective from those who have been doing it for a while. “In terms of our leadership, I think we still have a great core of veterans as a part of our roster,” Ellis said at the team’s World Cup media day last month. “I think it normally falls on those players to share their experiences. Make sure there’s a push when there needs to be a push and make sure there’s an arm around a shoulder when that’s needed as well for our younger players. I feel very good about the core of our team and the makeup of our team and the character.”Now that Rapinoe has 153 international appearances behind her, she said she has more capacity to mentor the younger players. “What I’ve noticed as I’ve gotten older is there’s just certain things that you don’t know until you know,” Rapinoe said. “And there’s a lot of us that have been through a lot of different situations from qualifying to World Cups to a couple different leagues and so my role is just to relay my experience to the younger kids and just give them a head start by giving them a heads up.”last_img read more


Wellington seventh grade girls dominate Rose Hill 41-23 to stay undefeated

first_imgby Tracy McCue, Sumner Newscow — In what is being considered its most competitive opponent of the year, The Wellington seventh grade girls A team still had little trouble disposing of Rose Hill 41-23 Thursday evening. Wellington defeated Rose Hill 41-23 in non-league competition. Rose Hill was bumped up to Pioneer League Div. III this year. The seventh grade is now 12-0 overall and 10-0 in the Pioneer League. “We had some competition this time and girls reacted well,” said Jeff Frazee, Wellington seventh grade girls coach. It was 16-11 at the half, before Wellington pulled away for the win. Scoring for Wellington were: Lexi Clift 4, Rylee Rusk 21, Draven Warnock 2, Mykiland French 4, Allison Buresh 8, Kari Dvorak 2 In the B team game, Wellington also stayed undefeated with a 37-25 victory. The B team is 9-0 (7-0 in Pioneer). Scoring for Wellington: Kadin Brown 8, Draven Warnock 12, Katrina Dvorak 15, Kady Arebalo 1, Macy’s Elkins 1 Wellington wraps up regular season Monday vs Haysville.——— In other Wellington Middle School action: Eighth grade girls Rose Hill A 28 Wellington 21 Scoring: Lindsey Scheufler 15, Cassandra Moody 4, Tori Lewellen 2. Wellington B 18 Rose Hill 11Seventh grade boys Rose Hill 37 Wellington 30 Scoring: Tanner Meyer 12, Luke Scheufler 7, Trenton Bannister 6, Berkeley Wright 3, Kade Adams 2. Eighth grade boys Wellington 46 Rose Hill 29 Scoring: Silas Popplewell 18, Blake Rausch 12, Tyler Brown 10, Zander Vargas 5, Malachi Macias 1. Wellington B-30 Rose Hill-14 Scoring: Zane Cornejo 2, John Long 6, Trevese Love 6, Bully Walker 2, Austin Soles 3, Malachi Macias 7, Isaac Hilt 4.Monday: Wellington Middle School wrestling: Wellington 71 Rose Hill 24 Wellington 78 Haysville West 11.last_img read more