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Polling Problems – The New York Times

first_imgFool us once …The polls were wrong again, and much of America wants to know why.- Advertisement – 4. Most of the easy solutions are probably not real solutions. Since Election Day, some campaign operatives have claimed their private polls were more accurate than the public polls. That seems more false than true. Biden, Trump and both parties campaigned as if their own polls matched the public polls, focusing on some states that were not really competitive and abandoning others that were close.- Advertisement – 5. Polls have still been more accurate over the last four years than they were for most of the 20th century. As pollsters get more information about this year’s election and what went wrong, they will try to fix the problems, much as they did in the past. A new challenge: In the smartphone age, poll response rates are far lower than they used to be.6. We journalists can do a better job of conveying the uncertainty in polls. Polls will never be perfect. Capturing the opinions of a large, diverse country is too difficult. And in today’s closely divided U.S., small polling errors can make underdogs look like favorites and vice versa. All of us — journalists, campaign strategists and the many Americans who have become obsessed with politics — shouldn’t forget this. We just got another reminder. Dozens of pre-election polls suggested that Joe Biden would beat President Trump by a wide margin, but the race instead came down to one or two percentage points in a handful of states. Polls also indicated that Democrats would do much better than they did in congressional races.So what happened? Here are six key points:1. In the last few years, Republican voters seem to have become less willing to respond to polls. Maybe that shouldn’t be surprising, given Trump’s attacks on the media, science and other institutions.- Advertisement – And my colleague Nate Cohn, who knows more about this subject than almost anybody, points out that a significant chunk of the error involved Hispanic voters. Nate has also discussed polling on episodes of “The Daily” and “The Argument” podcasts.Elsewhere: Sarah Isgur of The Dispatch says the problem isn’t about Trump voters who lie about their preference. Charles Franklin of Marquette University suggests the pandemic may have affected turnout in surprising ways. Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster, notes that polls in many states will still be “incredibly close” to the final result.THE LATEST NEWSThe ElectionThe Virus Broadway is closed. It’s also everywhere.These are difficult times for live theater. The pandemic has shut down Broadway and many local theaters since March, leaving actors, stagehands and others out of work and fans missing the shows. But there is one way that theater is managing to thrive right now: Broadway has become a bigger source of televised entertainment.An incomplete list of recent and upcoming releases includes “The Prom,” “The Boys in the Band,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” “West Side Story” and “Wicked.” The film version of “Hamilton” was so popular that it contributed to a bump in sign-ups for Disney Plus, The Verge reports. And in a Broadway first, a musical focused on the life of Diana, Princess of Wales is set to debut on Netflix before the stage production opens.Why is this happening now? One reason is streaming services’ “insatiable desire for content, even niche content,” Alexis Soloski writes in The Times. There’s also more mingling across theater, film and television than in the past. The playwright Jeremy O. Harris, who wrote “Slave Play,” signed a deal with HBO this year; Phoebe Waller-Bridge, who originally wrote and performed “Fleabag” as a one-woman play, signed one with Amazon.Some critics worry that film versions will cannibalize live ticket sales. But no film can entirely reproduce the experience of a live show. Just look at social media’s horrified reaction to last year’s movie version of “Cats.”The Times recommends: “What the Constitution Means to Me,” Heidi Schreck’s affecting play about the document’s impact on our daily lives.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to Cookcenter_img Morning ReadsModern Love: A man finds himself caught up in a global romance scam.The planet’s future: Climate change will be central to Biden’s presidency. Here’s what he plans to do about it.Lives Lived: Lucille Bridges braved abuse from white protesters as she and her 6-year-old daughter, Ruby, walked to an all-white school in New Orleans in 1960, crossing one of the segregated South’s most rigidly defended color lines. Bridges died at 86.Subscribers make our reporting possible, so we can help you make sense of the moment. If you’re not a subscriber, please consider becoming one today. Want to get The Morning by email? Here’s the sign-up.Good morning. It’s another record day for virus cases. Obama’s memoir gets a glowing review. And we look at why the polls were wrong. 2. This phenomenon isn’t simply about working-class whites. Pollsters were careful to include more of these voters in their samples than four years ago, when the polls also missed, but it didn’t solve the problem. One likely reason: Even within demographic groups — say, independent, older, middle-income white women — people who responded to polls this year leaned more Democratic than people who did not.3. It’s also not just about Trump. Polls missed in several Senate races even more than in the presidential race, which means they did an especially poor job of finding people who voted for Biden at the top and a Republican lower down the ballot. – Advertisement –last_img read more

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Russell Westbrook dedicates performance to Nipsey Hussle, whose death has shaken NBA

first_img How athletes protesting the national anthem has evolved over 17 years Hussle’s music was playing in the Lakers’ locker room before the game as a reminder to the players, who said they had a difficult time receiving the news.“We’ve been talking about it the last couple of days, we’ve taken it pretty hard,” veteran point guard Rajon Rondo said. “He’s a legend, he’s a king to where he’s from and around the world. He had a great message, setting a great example for a lot of young people and people where he’s from. So he was a great man.”KUZMA SITS AGAIN, COULD BE SHUT DOWNWith just four games remaining, there’s only one member of the Lakers’ preseason-hyped young core left who hasn’t been shut down.Related Articles Trail Blazers, Grizzlies advance to NBA play-in game; Suns, Spurs see playoff dreams dashed Trail Blazers beat Grizzlies in play-in, earn first-round series with the Lakers OKLAHOMA CITY — As Russell Westbrook landed with a rebound, accomplishing a milestone unseen in the NBA in fifty-one years, he repeated one sentence as he pounded his chest.“That’s for Nipsey!” he shouted as the home crowd stood up to applaud during the timeout. “That’s for Nipsey!”The shooting death of 33-year-old rapper Nipsey Hussle on Sunday rocked much of the NBA, where intersections with hip-hop are common and often powerfully felt. It meant a lot particularly to Westbrook, who wore a Crenshaw shirt to the game in honor of Hussle – the two men grew up close in South Los Angeles and became friends over the years.“That wasn’t for me, man,” Westbrook said postgame on the broadcast. “That was for my bro, man. That was for Nipsey, man: 20 plus 20 plus 20, they know what that means, man. That’s for my bro. Rest in peace, Nipsey.” AD Quality Auto 360p 720p 1080p Top articles1/5READ MOREUCLA alum Kenny Clark signs four-year contract extension with PackersIt’s been just as much of a talking point in the Lakers locker room. Many players, including LeBron James and Lance Stephenson, knew Hussle and were close with him. Hussle was a Lakers fan who frequently attended games and sat courtside.News broke of his death during the Lakers’ victory in New Orleans on Sunday, with James posting social media tributes to Hussle, including a tweet: “So so SAD man!! DAMN man this hurt.”While James wasn’t available to the media Tuesday after being shut down for the season, others were willing to speak up. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope said he had met Hussle several times in James’ company.“Great person,” he said. “Always had great energy. Just been sad what happened. … Hurt the whole city, pretty much.”Aside from his music catalog, Hussle also left behind a legacy as an L.A. activist, with hopes of improving his hometown and helping kids. Officials from the L.A.P.D. spoke this week about a planned summit with Hussle to help curb gang violence in the neighborhood in which he was killed. A suspect in the murder was arrested on Tuesday.center_img Lakers practice early hoping to answer all questions Lakers, Clippers schedules set for first round of NBA playoffs But if problems persist with his left foot tendinitis, Kyle Kuzma could be next.The second-year forward missed his second straight game with the ailment, which Coach Luke Walton said was not yet “100 percent healthy.” Instead of his typical pregame workout, Kuzma went to the weight room before sitting on the bench in a suit during Tuesday’s game.When asked if the injury might reach a point where the team’s medical staff decides the risk isn’t worth him playing again this season, Walton affirmed: “Possibly, yeah.“That’s why when we get home and kinda take a better look at what’s going on, that decision will be made,” he added. Newsroom GuidelinesNews TipsContact UsReport an Errorlast_img read more

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Turner Sports hires Candace Parker as NBA, NCAA analyst

first_imgATLANTA (AP) — Candace Parker has been hired by Turner Sports as an analyst and commentator for NBA games this season on TNT and NBA TV. Los Angeles Sparks forward Candace Parker reacts against the Minnesota Lynx in the second half of a single elimination WNBA basketball playoff game, Tuesday, Aug. 21, 2018, in Los Angeles. The Sparks won 75-68. (Keith Birmingham/The Orange County Register via AP) Turner announced Wednesday that Parker, who is still playing for the WNBA’s Los Angeles Sparks, will provide analysis on NBA TV’s “GameTime” studio show and will be part of the “Players Only” telecasts on both networks.The two-time league MVP and 2016 WNBA champion also will be a part of Turner’s and CBS’ coverage of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. She was a studio analyst for Turner during last year’s tournament.Parker says in a statement that she is happy to resume broadcasting with Turner and that it allows her to share her love of the sport with viewers.___More AP NBA: https://apnews.com/tag/NBA and https://twitter.com/AP_Sportslast_img read more

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ICYMI in NFL Week 7: Kaepernick, social issues back in news

first_imgCarolina Panthers strong safety Eric Reid, center, takes a knee during the playing of the national anthem prior to an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, Oct. 21, 2018, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke) Colin Kaepernick is no longer in the NFL — which, when one considers that Derek Anderson and Cody Kessler are getting snaps at quarterback, is fascinating — and the White House-driven conversation about pregame national anthems in the league largely has receded.Still, on this given Sunday, both Kaepernick, and the ramifications of his protest movement about racial equality and social justice, were back in the news.That’s because Kaepernick’s former teammate with the San Francisco 49ers, safety Eric Reid — who is still kneeling during “The Star-Spangled Banner” with his current club, the Carolina Panthers — made his personal conflict with Philadelphia Eagles safety Malcolm Jenkins a very public matter.First, Reid went out onto the field to jaw at Jenkins, who was near the Eagles logo before the game. They got in each other’s faces — Jenkins with a helmet on, Reid without — until officials, coaches and teammates separated the pair. Then, after the game, Reid did not shy away from telling reporters exactly what he thinks of Jenkins.This all stems from Reid’s split from Jenkins’ The Players Coalition after the group sought to get pregame demonstrations to stop if the NFL made charitable donations to causes they support. Reid also was bothered by Kaepernick’s exclusion from meetings on the issue.“We believe a lot of players should have stepped up for Colin,” Reid said Sunday. “I believe Malcolm capitalized on the situation. He co-opted the movement that was started by Colin to get his organization funded. It’s cowardly. He sold us out.”When Reid’s comments were relayed, Jenkins said: “I’m not going to get up here and say anything negative about that man.”Kaepernick, meanwhile, tweeted out a message of support for Reid.In case you missed it, here are other top topics after the NFL season’s seventh Sunday:UNFIT TO BE TIEDTennessee Titans coach Mike Vrabel had no interest in a tie. And when your offense is as vanilla and old-fashioned as his, maybe that makes sense — even if it means flying all the way back from London with a loss. When the Titans scored a TD to cut their deficit to 20-19 against the Los Angeles Chargers with 31 seconds left in regulation, the obvious move would have been to kick an extra point and figure you’ll take your chances in overtime. Vrabel went rogue, though, opting to try a 2-point conversion for the win, while risking defeat. Didn’t work: Marcus Mariota’s pass from the 1, following a penalty on the Chargers, was incomplete, and the Titans lost their third game in a row.TUCKERED OUTFor 222 consecutive extra points in the regular season, Baltimore Ravens kicker Justin Tucker’s aim was true. Somehow, No. 223 proved problematic. After Joe Flacco threw a 14-yard TD pass to John Brown with 24 seconds left to get Baltimore within a point against the New Orleans Saints, OT seemed to be a certainty. Except Tucker’s PAT swerved right of the goalpost, leaving his Ravens with a 24-23 loss. As the ball sailed awry, his jaw dropped and his eyes widened in disbelief. “Every kicker, every football player, is going to come across a moment, a challenging moment. You play long enough, you’re going to have a kick you want back,” Tucker said. “Tonight was that night for me.”0-4 ON THE ROADEven Jerry Jones had nothing to say after this one. The Dallas Cowboys’ owner loves to offer his thoughts after games — win or lose — but he avoided the media after his club dropped to 0-4 on the road this season with a 20-17 defeat against the NFC East rival Washington Redskins. All sorts of things went wrong for the Cowboys, who are 3-0 at home: Ezekiel Elliott was held to 34 yards; Dak Prescott lost two fumbles, including one returned for a fourth-quarter TD that turned out to be the winning points; coach Jason Garrett appeared to be satisfied setting up a potentially tying field-goal attempt to force overtime rather than trying to get the ball in the end zone in the closing seconds; a rarely called penalty on the long snapper turned a 47-yard kick into a 52-yarder that Brett Maher doinked off the left upright.___AP Sports Writer Dan Gelston in Philadelphia contributed to this report.___Follow Howard Fendrich on Twitter at http://twitter.com/HowardFendrich___More AP NFL: https://apnews.com/tag/NFL and https://twitter.com/AP_NFLlast_img read more