Polling Problems – The New York Times

first_imgFool us once …The polls were wrong again, and much of America wants to know why.- Advertisement – 4. Most of the easy solutions are probably not real solutions. Since Election Day, some campaign operatives have claimed their private polls were more accurate than the public polls. That seems more false than true. Biden, Trump and both parties campaigned as if their own polls matched the public polls, focusing on some states that were not really competitive and abandoning others that were close.- Advertisement – 5. Polls have still been more accurate over the last four years than they were for most of the 20th century. As pollsters get more information about this year’s election and what went wrong, they will try to fix the problems, much as they did in the past. A new challenge: In the smartphone age, poll response rates are far lower than they used to be.6. We journalists can do a better job of conveying the uncertainty in polls. Polls will never be perfect. Capturing the opinions of a large, diverse country is too difficult. And in today’s closely divided U.S., small polling errors can make underdogs look like favorites and vice versa. All of us — journalists, campaign strategists and the many Americans who have become obsessed with politics — shouldn’t forget this. We just got another reminder. Dozens of pre-election polls suggested that Joe Biden would beat President Trump by a wide margin, but the race instead came down to one or two percentage points in a handful of states. Polls also indicated that Democrats would do much better than they did in congressional races.So what happened? Here are six key points:1. In the last few years, Republican voters seem to have become less willing to respond to polls. Maybe that shouldn’t be surprising, given Trump’s attacks on the media, science and other institutions.- Advertisement – And my colleague Nate Cohn, who knows more about this subject than almost anybody, points out that a significant chunk of the error involved Hispanic voters. Nate has also discussed polling on episodes of “The Daily” and “The Argument” podcasts.Elsewhere: Sarah Isgur of The Dispatch says the problem isn’t about Trump voters who lie about their preference. Charles Franklin of Marquette University suggests the pandemic may have affected turnout in surprising ways. Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster, notes that polls in many states will still be “incredibly close” to the final result.THE LATEST NEWSThe ElectionThe Virus Broadway is closed. It’s also everywhere.These are difficult times for live theater. The pandemic has shut down Broadway and many local theaters since March, leaving actors, stagehands and others out of work and fans missing the shows. But there is one way that theater is managing to thrive right now: Broadway has become a bigger source of televised entertainment.An incomplete list of recent and upcoming releases includes “The Prom,” “The Boys in the Band,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” “West Side Story” and “Wicked.” The film version of “Hamilton” was so popular that it contributed to a bump in sign-ups for Disney Plus, The Verge reports. And in a Broadway first, a musical focused on the life of Diana, Princess of Wales is set to debut on Netflix before the stage production opens.Why is this happening now? One reason is streaming services’ “insatiable desire for content, even niche content,” Alexis Soloski writes in The Times. There’s also more mingling across theater, film and television than in the past. The playwright Jeremy O. Harris, who wrote “Slave Play,” signed a deal with HBO this year; Phoebe Waller-Bridge, who originally wrote and performed “Fleabag” as a one-woman play, signed one with Amazon.Some critics worry that film versions will cannibalize live ticket sales. But no film can entirely reproduce the experience of a live show. Just look at social media’s horrified reaction to last year’s movie version of “Cats.”The Times recommends: “What the Constitution Means to Me,” Heidi Schreck’s affecting play about the document’s impact on our daily lives.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to Cookcenter_img Morning ReadsModern Love: A man finds himself caught up in a global romance scam.The planet’s future: Climate change will be central to Biden’s presidency. Here’s what he plans to do about it.Lives Lived: Lucille Bridges braved abuse from white protesters as she and her 6-year-old daughter, Ruby, walked to an all-white school in New Orleans in 1960, crossing one of the segregated South’s most rigidly defended color lines. Bridges died at 86.Subscribers make our reporting possible, so we can help you make sense of the moment. If you’re not a subscriber, please consider becoming one today. Want to get The Morning by email? Here’s the sign-up.Good morning. It’s another record day for virus cases. Obama’s memoir gets a glowing review. And we look at why the polls were wrong. 2. This phenomenon isn’t simply about working-class whites. Pollsters were careful to include more of these voters in their samples than four years ago, when the polls also missed, but it didn’t solve the problem. One likely reason: Even within demographic groups — say, independent, older, middle-income white women — people who responded to polls this year leaned more Democratic than people who did not.3. It’s also not just about Trump. Polls missed in several Senate races even more than in the presidential race, which means they did an especially poor job of finding people who voted for Biden at the top and a Republican lower down the ballot. – Advertisement –last_img read more


More transgender people seeking medical help – study

first_imgNewsHub 19 January 2018Family First Comment: Depends what type of ‘help’ they’re seeking. If it’s to ‘cut’ at the body and take drugs, it won’t help. If it’s counselling and support to deal with the gender identity disorder, it will. You don’t give people with anorexia nervosa weight-loss pills eh. More transgender Kiwis are seeking help from Wellington medical services, a study published in the New Zealand Medical Journal has found.The paper is one of the first to look at how many Kiwis identify as transgender, and found 438 people had visited a Wellington clinic specialising in gender reassignment therapy between 1990 and 2016.There had been a particular increase in recent years with 92 people making at least one visit in 2016, compared to 11 people in 2009.This included 51 people requesting therapy to transition from male-to-female and 41 requesting female-to-male therapy in 2016 and a rise in young people visiting the clinic.The study’s authors said the findings were important because, while overseas clinics had noted a marked increase in the number of people requesting gender reassignment therapy, little data had been compiled in New Zealand.It showed the need for different medical fields and social groups to provide “holistic” and connected support services for transgender people, particularly those who are young, the authors said.READ MORE: read more


WADA ready to wipe out drug cheats, chief says

first_img Read Also: Australian Open: Sharapova says there’s still a lot of fire amid wildcard offer The significant extent of state-sponsored doping in Russia, notably between 2011 and 2015, was revealed in an independent report by sports lawyer Richard McLaren, released in 2016. The issue has dealt a colossal blow to the status of post-Soviet Russia as a major sports power after hosting events such as the 2013 World Athletics Championships, the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi and the 2018 World Cup. The Sochi Games later became notorious for the number of doping violations by prominent Russian athletes. FacebookTwitterWhatsAppEmail分享 Outgoing WADA President Craig Reedie says the Russian doping scandal shows that clean sport is under attack, but the anti-doping organization now has the tools to better weed out drug cheats. Taking stock of his six years at the helm of the World Anti-Doping Agency, the 78-year-old Briton insists the group is “stronger” than ever as it faces the “unprecedented” challenge of the doping crisis in Russia. Outgoing WADA President Craig Reedie says the Russian doping crisis is the biggest challenge he has faced in his six years at the helm of the anti-doping agency “Considering the last six years in particular, I am especially pleased to see how WADA responded to the challenges it faced since 2014, in particular the Russian doping crisis,” he said in his end-of-term message. The crisis, he recalled, led to the creation within WADA of an “intelligence and investigations” service, which played “a decisive role” in the recent decision to exclude Russia from major world sports competitions for falsifying anti-doping data. The Russian anti-doping agency RUSADA announced Friday that it has challenged the exclusion. Ultimately, it will be up to the Court of Arbitration for Sport to rule on the matter, said Reedie, whose term officially ends Tuesday. “Throughout this process WADA has shown it has the will, the expertise and the legal tools to stand up effectively to this unprecedented level of cheating and corruption,” he said. WADA decided on December 9 to ban Russia from participating in major international events for four years, including the 2020 and 2022 Olympic Games and the 2022 World Cup. Loading… Promoted ContentCelebrities Showing Support For George Floyd ProtestsBirds Enjoy Living In A Gallery Space Created For ThemHere Are The Top 10 Tiniest Mobile Phones On The Planet!11 Most Immersive Game To Play On Your Table TopWhy Go Veg? 7 Reasons To Do ThisThis Guy Photoshopped Himself Into Celeb Pics And It’s HystericalCouples Who Celebrated Their Union In A Unique, Unforgettable Way10 Phones That Can Work For Weeks Without Recharging5 Of The World’s Most Unique Theme ParksLittle Georgie Henley Has Grown Into A Beautiful Swan!14 Hilarious Comics Made By Women You Need To Follow Right NowIs Cristiano Ronaldo Converting His Hotels To Hospitals? Only handpicked Russian athletes will be able to participate in the competitions, but under a neutral flag and without the national anthem being played. WADA estimated that Russia had “manipulated” the data of the Moscow anti-doping laboratory which were transmitted to it at the beginning of the year, an umpteenth rebound in a scandal which started with the revelation in 2015 of an institutional doping practiced since 2011 and involving senior officials, secret agents and trafficked urine vials.last_img read more


How They Got There

first_imgThis is the concensus on how Kansas City, Toronto, the Mets, and the Cubs wound up baseball’s Top 4 teams last year.  In the case of Kansas City, they did it mostly through smart drafting of players and good trades.  Their two main acquisitions were Cain and Escobar.  The Blue Jays reached the top through free agency and smart trades.  They obtained Edwin  Encarnacion, and Troy Tulowitski from trades.As far as the Mets are concerned, they did it through the draft.  Their top 4 pitchers are deGron, Harvey, Motts, and Syndergaard.  All of these pitchers are in their first or second full season, so if the Mets can re-sign them they should be set for many years.  The Cubs also used the draft and smart trades to jump to the Top 4 in a very short time.  Their acquisition of Jake Arrieta and Anthony Rizzo in trades along with their own development of Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber make them a formidable team for many years.I am sure that all 4 of these teams will be in the thick of the pennant races in 2016.last_img read more


Colourful Georgetown streets came alive as parties submit candidate lists

first_imgNomination DayIt is said that there is strength in numbers, and on Friday when the political parties took to the streets for Nomination Day, that strength was in full display as the streets leading to Umana Yana were transformed into a sea of red and green.An overhead shot of the PPP/C’s sea of redNomination Day is considered as one of the most significant days leading up to the General and Regional Elections which is to be hosted on March 2, 2020.Not wanting to be left behind, supporters of the various political parties took to the streets as they joined their leaders heading to the Umana Yana in Kingston, Georgetown to submit the lists of candidates.The atmosphere was charged as the procession of supporters, led by their leaders, chanted the slogans of their respective parties.Nomination Day is significant in the sense that it guarantees the political parties a spot on the ballot paper once they have met the criteria outlined by the Guyana Elections Commission and catered for under the laws governing the elections body.APNU/AFC supportersThe parties have now submitted their list of candidates who they anticipate would take up seats in Parliament as well as on the Regional Democratic Councils. The lists submitted were the General Elections List, or the National Top-up List as it is called, along with the Geographical Constituency List.They will now await verification and approval from GECOM, which is expected to be completed by January 19.Under the list system, political parties have to submit three lists of candidates. The National Top-up List, the Geographical Constituency List and the Regional Candidates List. Candidates would be extracted from these lists to serve in the National Assembly as well as on Regional Democratic Councils since 25 of the 65 seats in the House are allocated to the 10 Administrative Regions (Geographical Constituency List) and the other 40 from the National Top-up List.Some 13 parties have submitted their lists of candidates to contest the General and Regional Elections or in some cases, just regional elections. This election is dubbed as the ‘mother of all elections’ since it was birthed from the passage of a No-Confidence Motion, which was successfully passed in the National Assembly over a year ago.PPP/C Presidential Candidate Irfaan Ali, Prime Ministerial Candidate Brigadier (retired) Mark Phillips, and General Secretary Bharrat Jagdeo leading the chargeWhile the process has birthed a number of new political parties, it was evident that the incumbent Government – A Partnership for National Unity/Alliance for Change (APNU/AFC) coalition – and the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) remain the frontrunners.The energy in the two camps was unmatched as both parties mobilised their supporters from all over the country – what can only be described as a “clash of crowds”.PPP/C assembled on Robb Street in front of their headquarters – Freedom House – while APNU/AFC assembled at Parade Ground.There were several music trucks blasting the campaign songs for the major players while their supporters sang loudly.President David Granger and his running mate, Khemraj Ramjattan, leading the processionThis election saw a shift in things since GECOM took a decision to move the Nomination Day proceedings from the badly-dilapidating City Hall to Umana Yana. This gave the political parties a bigger space for their supporters which ultimately resulted in the lack of a clash among rival supporters.The APNU/AFC coalition, led by President David Granger and Prime Ministerial Candidate Khemraj Ramjattan, were the first to arrive at the venue. They presented their list to loud cheers and horns blasting from their large group of supporters.The smaller parties only came with essential personnel and lack of fanfare, noting that it is what happens at the ballot rather than mobilising crowds to march with them as they file Nomination Day papers.The PPP/C was the fourth party to present their list to Chief Elections Officer Keith Lowenfield. Their mammoth-sized procession was led by Presidential Candidate Irfaan Ali, Prime Ministerial Candidate Brigadier (retired) Mark Phillips and General Secretary Bharrat Jagdeo.last_img read more